FIVE YEARS LATER DID KENYA ACHIEVED THE THREE AMISOM MANDATE?
Public holiday cellebration by the military
Kenya's military often referred as KDF is ranked sixth best in the Africa's continent. Most Citizens describe it as a brutal and highly trained with modern warfare equipments. In fact in every public holiday they display military might with perfectly organised state of the art ceremony showcasing both unique warfare talents and mighty 21st century military training. Watching them from a screen make you feel that Hollywood actions are too real. Away from this lets measure them in the warfare with Alshabaab..
Post 2011
Kenya crossed into Somalia in the late 2011 in an operation dubbed Linda Nchi which translates to Secure the nation. The reason the military crossed is one of the most pettiest thing in the history of warfare and is now taught in military schools across the globe. It is often described as a war that its entrant strategy was drafted whilst the military infantry was deep into Somali border. What is more grievous is the feeling and the negative attitude the citizens had and still have to date. The anger by the people to the government in making them support a war that started procedural and one that its victories and losses are hidden from them. Speaking to low ranked military officers (upto the rank Captain) one will simply understand that the forces themselves have negative perception and conspiracy theories surrounding the war itself look so real from the narratives of the servicemen.
First batch of military that captured Kismayu
To understand that the country is in a war that it play as actors not main subject is a real issue that KDF commanders are grappling and coming to terms with. In the aftermath of the El-Adde attack Kenya vacated three major military base and the operation of rescue and recover was too slow as the command was to be sort from AMISOM and not KDF generals. The truth is Kenya can't even reveal the number of forces it lost because they are a proxy unit in the larger AMISOM forces in Somalia. If only it could be independent, am sure by now the defence team would have availed the information to the Kenyans.That is the frustration of being an actor and not the head in a military protocol. Kenya is not independent is what Kenyans must live with.
Now that Kenya Defence forces is a sub-unit of the larger AMISOM we need to understand AMISOM.
Amisom officer patrolling streets of Kismayu
African Union mission in Somalia (AMISOM) was established on 19 January 2007 by the African union peace and security council. As an actor Kenya was given THREE major areas of military operations that are hard and require highest professionalism and brutality if need be. The areas are;
-Downgrading and decapitation of Alshabaab.
-To establish a stable governance and order including creation strong caretaker institutions in places captured.
- Creation of corridors for humanitarian assistance and healthy/safe environment for workers and those who need dire help
Five years down the line as a force that was given the hardest military task did KDF achieve anything on the three proposition? My answer is party YES and partly NO.
It is no doubt that Kenya has achieved over 80 percent success on downgrading and decapacitation since late 2015. Residents in Somalia that live in areas where Alshabaab operate believe that the entry of a sect that has its allegiance to the ISIS is now more brutal and too aggressive compared to the weakened Alshabaab. In theories of offending new criminals tend to cause huge damage than established sect. Although Alshabaab claimed responsibility for the El-Adde, their are multiple modus operandi that were so unique showing that their was a helping hand in planing and its execution to pull a' huge' casualty on Kenya Defence Forces. The remaining 20% of degrading will take longer than Kenya plans as the entry of US special elite forces and drone strengthens the one narrative theory of radicalisation and sympathy generation from Somali population that US invaded Somalia again. I wish the US could support Kenya silently to do the remaining downgrading and decapitation.
Pictures of Alshabaab militant killed by Kenya Defence forces at Baure Lamu
The Darood factor in the second mandate
On the second mandate of Kenya in this AMISOM strategy, conspiracy theory of a military that is used by one ethnic community to overtake the port city of Kismayu dominates local tea dens and 'fadikudirir' places. This maybe true or maybe a fallacy but military operation after the El-adde attack on Gedo region now gives a life line to the conspiracy. In fact it can be safely said that Alshabaab enjoys safe hideouts in the Gedo region than in any other place in Somali. The Main planner of Westgate attack was reported to be marehaan radicalised by Bajunis in the coast. Unless Kenya comes cleans of these allegations and theories that dominate locals mind and shape ordinary people's opinion the Daroods indifference will escalate right within Kenya.
Kenya needs a honest advisor from the Diir or Hawiye clan of the Somali community. A somali professor that i so much respect one time in a coffee meeting told me Kenya is fighting Alshabaab that are Darood and it is doing for another Darood.
A deserted school in Gedo region. The residents say military bombings was everyday event
Huge complexity in the third mandate
On the third mandate, Kenya's forces can only do it if the first two others are successful. Looking at how major INGO's are using local NGO's partly solve the problem but most of the international humanitarian expert believe that Alshabaab has so many proxy local NGO's that receive aid as genuine one and later transfer to the different brigades of the sect. Kenya's team has totaly failed in this. In most of the modern military warfare the team that control basic needs of the other is bound to win. It will be too fatal to stop all aids as hundreds of genuine families may be affected. Donor agencies and aid distributing team must come up with a way, a safe way to help the vulnerable and deal with huge loss towards Alshabaab.
Aid distribution. Experts believe most of this goes to Alshabaab camps
Constitutional Way forward to the country
Kenya is a country of laws. The constitution was breached when the country defence force was going into the war is a true testimony. What is also true is that Article 238 categorically empowers the national assembly to;
- Conduct an independent inquiry into the military warfare in Somalis or in any other place, and
- Demand progress reports from department of defence on any warfare the country fights
Kenya's National assembly
All blames should be directed to the parliament for sleeping on its job when more than 80% of Kenyans feel that the country is in a war that is not defined in terms of output and the safety of the 40 million Kenyans and the troops.
The president must listen to the cries of the kenyans and suppress the ego that we will only move out with huge success. We have already won. The constitution is clear that security organs are subordinate to the civilian authority and consequently accountability is a mandatory ingredient in all government operations.
Kenya's military often referred as KDF is ranked sixth best in the Africa's continent. Most Citizens describe it as a brutal and highly trained with modern warfare equipments. In fact in every public holiday they display military might with perfectly organised state of the art ceremony showcasing both unique warfare talents and mighty 21st century military training. Watching them from a screen make you feel that Hollywood actions are too real. Away from this lets measure them in the warfare with Alshabaab..
Post 2011
Kenya crossed into Somalia in the late 2011 in an operation dubbed Linda Nchi which translates to Secure the nation. The reason the military crossed is one of the most pettiest thing in the history of warfare and is now taught in military schools across the globe. It is often described as a war that its entrant strategy was drafted whilst the military infantry was deep into Somali border. What is more grievous is the feeling and the negative attitude the citizens had and still have to date. The anger by the people to the government in making them support a war that started procedural and one that its victories and losses are hidden from them. Speaking to low ranked military officers (upto the rank Captain) one will simply understand that the forces themselves have negative perception and conspiracy theories surrounding the war itself look so real from the narratives of the servicemen.
To understand that the country is in a war that it play as actors not main subject is a real issue that KDF commanders are grappling and coming to terms with. In the aftermath of the El-Adde attack Kenya vacated three major military base and the operation of rescue and recover was too slow as the command was to be sort from AMISOM and not KDF generals. The truth is Kenya can't even reveal the number of forces it lost because they are a proxy unit in the larger AMISOM forces in Somalia. If only it could be independent, am sure by now the defence team would have availed the information to the Kenyans.That is the frustration of being an actor and not the head in a military protocol. Kenya is not independent is what Kenyans must live with.
Now that Kenya Defence forces is a sub-unit of the larger AMISOM we need to understand AMISOM.
African Union mission in Somalia (AMISOM) was established on 19 January 2007 by the African union peace and security council. As an actor Kenya was given THREE major areas of military operations that are hard and require highest professionalism and brutality if need be. The areas are;
-Downgrading and decapitation of Alshabaab.
-To establish a stable governance and order including creation strong caretaker institutions in places captured.
- Creation of corridors for humanitarian assistance and healthy/safe environment for workers and those who need dire help
Five years down the line as a force that was given the hardest military task did KDF achieve anything on the three proposition? My answer is party YES and partly NO.
It is no doubt that Kenya has achieved over 80 percent success on downgrading and decapacitation since late 2015. Residents in Somalia that live in areas where Alshabaab operate believe that the entry of a sect that has its allegiance to the ISIS is now more brutal and too aggressive compared to the weakened Alshabaab. In theories of offending new criminals tend to cause huge damage than established sect. Although Alshabaab claimed responsibility for the El-Adde, their are multiple modus operandi that were so unique showing that their was a helping hand in planing and its execution to pull a' huge' casualty on Kenya Defence Forces. The remaining 20% of degrading will take longer than Kenya plans as the entry of US special elite forces and drone strengthens the one narrative theory of radicalisation and sympathy generation from Somali population that US invaded Somalia again. I wish the US could support Kenya silently to do the remaining downgrading and decapitation.
The Darood factor in the second mandate
On the second mandate of Kenya in this AMISOM strategy, conspiracy theory of a military that is used by one ethnic community to overtake the port city of Kismayu dominates local tea dens and 'fadikudirir' places. This maybe true or maybe a fallacy but military operation after the El-adde attack on Gedo region now gives a life line to the conspiracy. In fact it can be safely said that Alshabaab enjoys safe hideouts in the Gedo region than in any other place in Somali. The Main planner of Westgate attack was reported to be marehaan radicalised by Bajunis in the coast. Unless Kenya comes cleans of these allegations and theories that dominate locals mind and shape ordinary people's opinion the Daroods indifference will escalate right within Kenya.
Kenya needs a honest advisor from the Diir or Hawiye clan of the Somali community. A somali professor that i so much respect one time in a coffee meeting told me Kenya is fighting Alshabaab that are Darood and it is doing for another Darood.
Huge complexity in the third mandate
On the third mandate, Kenya's forces can only do it if the first two others are successful. Looking at how major INGO's are using local NGO's partly solve the problem but most of the international humanitarian expert believe that Alshabaab has so many proxy local NGO's that receive aid as genuine one and later transfer to the different brigades of the sect. Kenya's team has totaly failed in this. In most of the modern military warfare the team that control basic needs of the other is bound to win. It will be too fatal to stop all aids as hundreds of genuine families may be affected. Donor agencies and aid distributing team must come up with a way, a safe way to help the vulnerable and deal with huge loss towards Alshabaab.
Constitutional Way forward to the country
Kenya is a country of laws. The constitution was breached when the country defence force was going into the war is a true testimony. What is also true is that Article 238 categorically empowers the national assembly to;
- Conduct an independent inquiry into the military warfare in Somalis or in any other place, and
- Demand progress reports from department of defence on any warfare the country fights
All blames should be directed to the parliament for sleeping on its job when more than 80% of Kenyans feel that the country is in a war that is not defined in terms of output and the safety of the 40 million Kenyans and the troops.
The president must listen to the cries of the kenyans and suppress the ego that we will only move out with huge success. We have already won. The constitution is clear that security organs are subordinate to the civilian authority and consequently accountability is a mandatory ingredient in all government operations.
